Stella Population Growth Model
Stella Population Growth Model
Required Reading
Optional Readings:
Global Population Profile 2002
Global Problems and the Culture of Capitalism, Richard Robbins, Chapter 5 Intro
Population Readings (read intro and A,B,C,D - explore links for further info)
Assignment
Start with a population of 6 billion people (6e9). This is close to the world population in 2000.
Use an average birth rate of 21 births per 1000 and a death rate of 9 deaths per thousand. These rates are averages for the world from the Population Reference Bureau.
Run the model for 100 years.
Answer the following questions:
What is the predicted population in 2050 and 2100?
How does your 2050 population compare with the range of projections by the United Nations? (graph). What are the assumptions of the UN projections?
By how much would you have to change the birth rate to get approximately the same result as the UN?
List some factors that govern changes in birth and death rate (hint: look at some of the population and health variabiles at Population Reference Bureau).
What is the definition of carrying capacity? Is it applicable to the human population? If so, have we already reached or surpassed the human carrying capacity of the Earth (in your opinion)? Discuss in terms of the readings above.
email your answers and Stella model as an attachment to:
hodell@ufl.edu
