GLY1073 - Population Growth and Fossil Fuel Usage Model

Readings

Energy Economics and Fossil Fuel

Data source:

Energy Information Administration

1.) Using a simple population growth model, calculate the amount of time it will take to deplete fossil fuel reserves and resources of oil, gas, and coal. Use the average birth (17.3 per 1000) and death (9 per 1000) rates determined last week that match the UN population projections of 9.1 billion in 2050. Start your model from the year 2000 with a world population of 6.0E+9 and use the following tables for reserves and resources (adapted from the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy):

Reserves	Reliance	Conventional Units	KW Hours	Joules
Oil	44%	6.99E+11 barrels	1.19E+15	4.28E+21
Natural Gas	29%	3.40E+11 cubic feet	1.02E+15	3.67E+21
Coal	27%	9.87E+11 tons	6.51E+15	2.34E+22
Total			8.72E+15	3.14E+22

Resources	Reliance	Conventional Units	KW Hours	Joules
Oil	44%	1.42E+12 barrels	2.41E+15	8.69E+21
Natural Gas	29%	1.60E+16 cubic feet	4.80E+15	1.73E+22
Coal	27%	7.80E+12 tons	5.14E+16	1.85E+23
Total			5.86E+16	2.11E+23

Note: Reserves are concentrations of fossil fuels that can (at present) be economically and legally extracted. Resources are concentrations of fossil fuels that can potentially be extracted.

Perform the calcuation using "Joules" as the reservoirs of oils, natural gas, and coal. Assume the per capita consumption rate of energy is equal to 6.28E+10 Joules/yr.

a. Estimate the time to depletion for oil, coal, and gas using both estimated reserves and resources. Show your result both graphically and in table format.

b. How do your estimates for time to depletion for oil and coal reserves and resources compare with other estimates assuming no further resources (estimates of oil and coal depletion)?

c. How reasonable are the assumptions of the model?  For example, per capita energy consumption stays constant.  The percent reliance on each fossil fuel remains constant. When a fossil fuel is completely depleted, the model assumes that it was replaced by an alternative energy source.  Suggest ways you could build economics (price) into the model?

2.) Next, create a reservoir (box) of atmospheric carbon and make each of the fossil fuel consumption fluxes an input to the atmospheric C box.  Using the table below which shows the amount of carbon (g) produced per joule of energy, calculate the amount of carbon (g) that will be added to the atmosphere over the next 100 years.  Express your answer in giga tons (i.e., E15 grams).  How does the amount added compare to the 720 gigaTons  in the atmosphere in 1990?  Run the model for both reserves and resources. Show your results in both graph and table formats.